2007年7月12日星期四
2007年6月28日星期四
一些實事
好耐都冇跟進大市，近日被友人催谷寫下野，今晚見訓唔著，就寫幾隻字。
有人認為大市大升是因為政治市，以下提供一些事實給大家參考下：
一、以政治為由把大市炒起係有既，不過攪手係咩人，要諗真下。若認為係中央既話，咁就要諗下近日中央所做既野似乎好唔配合喎。雖然係放寬QDII，但果兩日過千億既成交，金額之大絕非來自QDII。反而中央再出打壓股市既言論、同埋今日減低(甚至打算取消)入息稅都確確實實係志在打擊股市。雖然目標係A股，但係A股對港股既影響，唔使多講；唔可以好似某些分析員咁，一時就話有關，一時又話冇關，為解釋市況而解釋。
二、中央唔會為左攪靚個市，而推伯姓入市，令大家最終坐艇。若然係假手於大戶，咁大戶都要諗下後路轉身掛，最終影響到既又係廣大人民。除非係要大戶門買入AH差距大既股份，貴D都要買，持貨好幾年先准走。真係有咁既力量推市，咁有會唔會早左D呢？如果係有操控既話，大可以教準D，定係有人著左先機呢？咁但係著先機既已經幫手做左野，之後又係唔係可以慳番呢？
三、近年既市況，其實已經好靚仔，已經同全世界交代到，唔使砌都咁盡掛。
四、如果股市真係有「實升」既話，你估D大鱷會點做。
筆者唔係話完全否定回歸十週年既政治理由，實在唔敢阻大家發達，只係想講出另一方面既睇法。
係大市未作動之前，較少聽見有財經佬討論「回歸十週年」。唔知係大家都有共識要點玩黎個游戲定係真係唔睇好個市。筆者兩個月前都話只要黎個既念冇拿出黎大唱特唱，都重係安全，反而會成事。外圍亦好就，五月大市未於筆者四月所預期咁出現大跌，結果只係牛牛皮皮，上上落落。
七月頭好友應該會得勢不饒淡友。如果組織到升勢配合「回歸十週年」既念，成功引黎散戶入市，「最後大升」終告完成，隨之而黎既「似樣調整」亦因「忍左咁耐」而攪到好大鑊。筆者依然覺得唔可以掉以輕心，恕筆者冇吉士。重來投資，好少話十足把握，應該因應自己有幾成把握，以持貨量控制風險，但係好多人一係就全情投入，一係就完全放棄，咁係有問題架。
最後有幾個現象同事實想同大家分享下。
一、筆者觀察左好耐，質素低既分析員無謂講，但發覺響眾多質素高既分析員裏面，近年對大市掌握得非常好既有：「新城」既黃溢華同埋「每週」既高步昇，佢地講既野非常有參考價值。其他高質分析員，對個股既睇法都有出色者，但係睇大市真係差左D。當然重有其他好野，筆者知唔晒。
二、筆者唔買「精制失修」都留意佢既大標題，配合散戶既近期狀態，粗略都估計到會出咩事。近期大市大升，之前冇見佢大唱好過，升勢遲續一段時間，至剛過去既週未，大大隻字「牛氣沖天」，港股跌足三日，好橋。
三、近期，見最穩陣果個「審慎型」都放心左好多。因咁樣而推斷大市將再有一輪升浪，亦近乎尾聲既話，都唔係冇跟據。
總結係筆者依然認為之前既調整唔似樣，要有「似樣調整」，要先有「最後大升」。「最後大升」遲遲未發生，如今已經黎到，故筆者非常有介心，但又唔敢阻人發達，只希望朋友門隨著時間 (即，唔係話依家就要好驚，未使好驚，最後大升未完) 、按自己既把握，控制風險，可以用持貨量，減持窩輪，或將三分一之盈利轉投窩輪等，各施各法，但求自補。如果相信「最安全既時候先係最危險」黎句話唔係廢話，咁就要諗真下。賺唔到，賺少左，冇錯，錢係賺唔晒既，但蝕左，蝕多左，就係大錯。
有人認為大市大升是因為政治市，以下提供一些事實給大家參考下：
一、以政治為由把大市炒起係有既，不過攪手係咩人，要諗真下。若認為係中央既話，咁就要諗下近日中央所做既野似乎好唔配合喎。雖然係放寬QDII，但果兩日過千億既成交，金額之大絕非來自QDII。反而中央再出打壓股市既言論、同埋今日減低(甚至打算取消)入息稅都確確實實係志在打擊股市。雖然目標係A股，但係A股對港股既影響，唔使多講；唔可以好似某些分析員咁，一時就話有關，一時又話冇關，為解釋市況而解釋。
二、中央唔會為左攪靚個市，而推伯姓入市，令大家最終坐艇。若然係假手於大戶，咁大戶都要諗下後路轉身掛，最終影響到既又係廣大人民。除非係要大戶門買入AH差距大既股份，貴D都要買，持貨好幾年先准走。真係有咁既力量推市，咁有會唔會早左D呢？如果係有操控既話，大可以教準D，定係有人著左先機呢？咁但係著先機既已經幫手做左野，之後又係唔係可以慳番呢？
三、近年既市況，其實已經好靚仔，已經同全世界交代到，唔使砌都咁盡掛。
四、如果股市真係有「實升」既話，你估D大鱷會點做。
筆者唔係話完全否定回歸十週年既政治理由，實在唔敢阻大家發達，只係想講出另一方面既睇法。
係大市未作動之前，較少聽見有財經佬討論「回歸十週年」。唔知係大家都有共識要點玩黎個游戲定係真係唔睇好個市。筆者兩個月前都話只要黎個既念冇拿出黎大唱特唱，都重係安全，反而會成事。外圍亦好就，五月大市未於筆者四月所預期咁出現大跌，結果只係牛牛皮皮，上上落落。
七月頭好友應該會得勢不饒淡友。如果組織到升勢配合「回歸十週年」既念，成功引黎散戶入市，「最後大升」終告完成，隨之而黎既「似樣調整」亦因「忍左咁耐」而攪到好大鑊。筆者依然覺得唔可以掉以輕心，恕筆者冇吉士。重來投資，好少話十足把握，應該因應自己有幾成把握，以持貨量控制風險，但係好多人一係就全情投入，一係就完全放棄，咁係有問題架。
最後有幾個現象同事實想同大家分享下。
一、筆者觀察左好耐，質素低既分析員無謂講，但發覺響眾多質素高既分析員裏面，近年對大市掌握得非常好既有：「新城」既黃溢華同埋「每週」既高步昇，佢地講既野非常有參考價值。其他高質分析員，對個股既睇法都有出色者，但係睇大市真係差左D。當然重有其他好野，筆者知唔晒。
二、筆者唔買「精制失修」都留意佢既大標題，配合散戶既近期狀態，粗略都估計到會出咩事。近期大市大升，之前冇見佢大唱好過，升勢遲續一段時間，至剛過去既週未，大大隻字「牛氣沖天」，港股跌足三日，好橋。
三、近期，見最穩陣果個「審慎型」都放心左好多。因咁樣而推斷大市將再有一輪升浪，亦近乎尾聲既話，都唔係冇跟據。
總結係筆者依然認為之前既調整唔似樣，要有「似樣調整」，要先有「最後大升」。「最後大升」遲遲未發生，如今已經黎到，故筆者非常有介心，但又唔敢阻人發達，只希望朋友門隨著時間 (即，唔係話依家就要好驚，未使好驚，最後大升未完) 、按自己既把握，控制風險，可以用持貨量，減持窩輪，或將三分一之盈利轉投窩輪等，各施各法，但求自補。如果相信「最安全既時候先係最危險」黎句話唔係廢話，咁就要諗真下。賺唔到，賺少左，冇錯，錢係賺唔晒既，但蝕左，蝕多左，就係大錯。
2007年6月10日星期日
大眾金融控股跌勢見止
大眾金融(626)，先後10天線(藍色線)及20天線(綠色線)升穿100天線(啡色線)。今番跌勢現平底該止。大市不穩卻見穩，筆者百忙中已上車，作個記錄。(利益申佈：筆者持有大眾金融控股(626)之股份。)
2007年5月8日星期二
四月結算挾唔成，五月初再挾，死未？
四月尾，星期三、四，好友果然大舉進攻，但成效不大，出奇地只能挾傷淡友，冇緊要，引淡友五月再鬥，五月初挾死唔少淡友喇掛。
筆者將近日觀察到一些股評人既言論，同各位分享。請各位評評理，諗下重聽唔聽佢地講好呢？
一、係五一之前，好多評論員都講趁五一黃金週，中央會推出打壓股市之政策。由於之前加息及調高存款準備金都不足以壓止炒風，故需要更強硬之手段。佢地又話，中央選擇長假期推出措施為左令股民有時間冷靜消化有關措施。建議股民先行離場觀望。
聽其言者，先行離場觀望大市創新高。還有，該言論是否有其予盾之處呢？既然中央近期打極D股民都唔願走，若然中央要出手，點解會認為中央要畀個假期D股民消化下D措施呢？等佢地冷靜地唔好亂咁走？點Cin？點Jack？
二、今日恆指升幅明顯於尾市收窄，但股評人話唔擔心，因為恆生指數未平倉合約冇減少到。
先唔評論使唔使擔心住。但肯定炒恆指既大戶冇咁傻，會畀人捉到路。其中一個好簡單既方法係，用兩個唔同既戶口，一個響之前做晒好倉。另一個用黎今日做淡倉。咁，即係平左倉。結果係，未平倉合約有增無減，成交亦多左，等其他唔知情既人，以為成交大增，繼續跟住做好倉，而大戶就可以再做多幾張淡倉。咁既操作，所需既係更多按金，資金鎖到期指結算日。
三、港股升市受外圍帶動。
重來唔知某電視台新聞報道員當黎句：「外圍帶動」，係一種修辭既手法，定係貪佢讀黎好似好醒咁呢？星期日話：「受到美股創新高所帶動，港股連升三日。」今日又話：「受到外圍做好所帶動，港股早段一度做好，並創出新高。」唉！如果跌呢，就可以話：「外圍做好，但港股未能跟隨。」係，重可以講：「受港股帶動，三嬸血壓一度升至三月以來既高位。但林伯未能跟隨，尿壓逆市向下，一度創七年新低。」重有，美股新高之後又有新高，創左好多日啦，要跟，晨早跟左啦。
當然，筆者唔係話所有股評人都不值一提，只係想大家警惕下咁o者。
筆者將近日觀察到一些股評人既言論，同各位分享。請各位評評理，諗下重聽唔聽佢地講好呢？
一、係五一之前，好多評論員都講趁五一黃金週，中央會推出打壓股市之政策。由於之前加息及調高存款準備金都不足以壓止炒風，故需要更強硬之手段。佢地又話，中央選擇長假期推出措施為左令股民有時間冷靜消化有關措施。建議股民先行離場觀望。
聽其言者，先行離場觀望大市創新高。還有，該言論是否有其予盾之處呢？既然中央近期打極D股民都唔願走，若然中央要出手，點解會認為中央要畀個假期D股民消化下D措施呢？等佢地冷靜地唔好亂咁走？點Cin？點Jack？
二、今日恆指升幅明顯於尾市收窄，但股評人話唔擔心，因為恆生指數未平倉合約冇減少到。
先唔評論使唔使擔心住。但肯定炒恆指既大戶冇咁傻，會畀人捉到路。其中一個好簡單既方法係，用兩個唔同既戶口，一個響之前做晒好倉。另一個用黎今日做淡倉。咁，即係平左倉。結果係，未平倉合約有增無減，成交亦多左，等其他唔知情既人，以為成交大增，繼續跟住做好倉，而大戶就可以再做多幾張淡倉。咁既操作，所需既係更多按金，資金鎖到期指結算日。
三、港股升市受外圍帶動。
重來唔知某電視台新聞報道員當黎句：「外圍帶動」，係一種修辭既手法，定係貪佢讀黎好似好醒咁呢？星期日話：「受到美股創新高所帶動，港股連升三日。」今日又話：「受到外圍做好所帶動，港股早段一度做好，並創出新高。」唉！如果跌呢，就可以話：「外圍做好，但港股未能跟隨。」係，重可以講：「受港股帶動，三嬸血壓一度升至三月以來既高位。但林伯未能跟隨，尿壓逆市向下，一度創七年新低。」重有，美股新高之後又有新高，創左好多日啦，要跟，晨早跟左啦。
當然，筆者唔係話所有股評人都不值一提，只係想大家警惕下咁o者。
2007年4月25日星期三
回應第一拯救小隊隊員
署名「第一拯救小隊隊員」的讀者發出了一個提問，見「散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可施」一文之comments。
首先感激閣下作出如此有見地之提問。
你說的甚是，筆者亦認定10年回歸要做到個市好靚仔，一片繁華既境況。
所以筆者認為跌市要響7月前出現。
要點係：
一、唔可以回歸十年，即七月一日後，就展開跌市。一片繁華境況應該都要維持一下。甚至維持至08奧運。
二、若要粉飾大市，是要資金推高大市的。不太可能過早便開始托市，資金該留力到某一階段才有行動。
三、若於20,500點水平推高大市，其實向上水位唔夠，還要維持到回歸後，相信難度非常高。
故筆者認為大市會於七月前找出機會調整，再由某個低位一路升番上黎，做個甚麼連升幾多日，一共升了多少多少點，破埋記錄，創埋新高。
還有一點非常值得留意，就是市場有幾多人會作出這個推測，又有幾多人願意透露這種看法。回顧近期大市，明顯地，大部份時候都是市場循大圍看法的相反方向發展；與市場想法對著幹的人才大勝。筆者認為只把這現象以「相反理論」解釋，容易誤導人。事實上是「沒有這麼易賺的錢」這個理論才是真正的定律；總不能一檯麻章，四個人食胡。
首先感激閣下作出如此有見地之提問。
你說的甚是，筆者亦認定10年回歸要做到個市好靚仔，一片繁華既境況。
所以筆者認為跌市要響7月前出現。
要點係：
一、唔可以回歸十年，即七月一日後，就展開跌市。一片繁華境況應該都要維持一下。甚至維持至08奧運。
二、若要粉飾大市，是要資金推高大市的。不太可能過早便開始托市，資金該留力到某一階段才有行動。
三、若於20,500點水平推高大市，其實向上水位唔夠，還要維持到回歸後，相信難度非常高。
故筆者認為大市會於七月前找出機會調整，再由某個低位一路升番上黎，做個甚麼連升幾多日，一共升了多少多少點，破埋記錄，創埋新高。
還有一點非常值得留意，就是市場有幾多人會作出這個推測，又有幾多人願意透露這種看法。回顧近期大市，明顯地，大部份時候都是市場循大圍看法的相反方向發展；與市場想法對著幹的人才大勝。筆者認為只把這現象以「相反理論」解釋，容易誤導人。事實上是「沒有這麼易賺的錢」這個理論才是真正的定律；總不能一檯麻章，四個人食胡。
2007年4月24日星期二
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私
大戶無法引入大批散戶接火棒。一有咩風吹草動就觸發散戶G點，未有耐可以做到散戶股火焚身。唯有係指數期貨上撕殺。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
2007年4月19日星期四
Back on Track
Just like last Christmas, it is.
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
2007年4月3日星期二
Last Christmas
As far as Easter goes... looks just like last Christmas...
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
2007年3月25日星期日
Tomorrow, stock will have a good rise
According to my conspiracy theory, tomorrow, stock will have a good rise, simply because Tsang elected.
2007年3月22日星期四
I have to say this...
Long time no write...
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
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