署名「第一拯救小隊隊員」的讀者發出了一個提問，見「散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可施」一文之comments。
首先感激閣下作出如此有見地之提問。
你說的甚是，筆者亦認定10年回歸要做到個市好靚仔，一片繁華既境況。
所以筆者認為跌市要響7月前出現。
要點係：
一、唔可以回歸十年，即七月一日後，就展開跌市。一片繁華境況應該都要維持一下。甚至維持至08奧運。
二、若要粉飾大市，是要資金推高大市的。不太可能過早便開始托市，資金該留力到某一階段才有行動。
三、若於20,500點水平推高大市，其實向上水位唔夠，還要維持到回歸後，相信難度非常高。
故筆者認為大市會於七月前找出機會調整，再由某個低位一路升番上黎，做個甚麼連升幾多日，一共升了多少多少點，破埋記錄，創埋新高。
還有一點非常值得留意，就是市場有幾多人會作出這個推測，又有幾多人願意透露這種看法。回顧近期大市，明顯地，大部份時候都是市場循大圍看法的相反方向發展；與市場想法對著幹的人才大勝。筆者認為只把這現象以「相反理論」解釋，容易誤導人。事實上是「沒有這麼易賺的錢」這個理論才是真正的定律；總不能一檯麻章，四個人食胡。
2007年4月25日星期三
2007年4月24日星期二
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私
大戶無法引入大批散戶接火棒。一有咩風吹草動就觸發散戶G點，未有耐可以做到散戶股火焚身。唯有係指數期貨上撕殺。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
2007年4月19日星期四
Back on Track
Just like last Christmas, it is.
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
2007年4月3日星期二
Last Christmas
As far as Easter goes... looks just like last Christmas...
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
2007年3月25日星期日
Tomorrow, stock will have a good rise
According to my conspiracy theory, tomorrow, stock will have a good rise, simply because Tsang elected.
2007年3月22日星期四
I have to say this...
Long time no write...
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
2007年2月28日星期三
今日分分鐘純屬超大震倉活動
今日乃近年最驚險既一次。昨晚看著道指由跌200多點擴大至差不多跌600點，最終收市仍跌400多點，實在訓唔著覺。當晚計劃好第二天如何續步放貨。結果一早恆指由最低抄起，一開盤個個開價離晒大譜！市場失性，有人撩貨，不虞有詐，當睇唔到。寫下短短文章，然後攬住D貨訓其大覺，此舉都算係近期代表作。結果同個市其實冇乜關係既財政預算案講完之後，照慣例回升，之前既跌幅再擴大果然係例牌菜。
今日其實係「國際撈低貨日」，自己成手貨唔夠資金冇份撈，更加唔會提他人入貨，做吃力不討好之事。有人認為建設銀行機會難逢，大舉入貨作中線投資。大部份股份都成功被人撩出平貨。玖龍紙業居然被人撩出$14.5既貨，然後臨收市又居然可以倒升2%，非常過份！
星期二內地傳聞一大籮。攪到咁大，唔通下星期有極好消息出台？
依家「最後大升」唔成時，亦未見係筆者所講既「似樣調整」(該調整要見下250天線，18,000點等G點，就好似上年六月中出現果隻調整)。大市都重係上上落落格局，如果下星期中央真係出好消息，「最後大升」有機會出現番。若果唔係，大市反彈回補今日之下跌裂口後，再向下探，有機會提早攪出個「似樣調整」。不過筆者還是偏向下星期中央冇乜壞消息出台，甚或有好消息。
今日其實係「國際撈低貨日」，自己成手貨唔夠資金冇份撈，更加唔會提他人入貨，做吃力不討好之事。有人認為建設銀行機會難逢，大舉入貨作中線投資。大部份股份都成功被人撩出平貨。玖龍紙業居然被人撩出$14.5既貨，然後臨收市又居然可以倒升2%，非常過份！
星期二內地傳聞一大籮。攪到咁大，唔通下星期有極好消息出台？
依家「最後大升」唔成時，亦未見係筆者所講既「似樣調整」(該調整要見下250天線，18,000點等G點，就好似上年六月中出現果隻調整)。大市都重係上上落落格局，如果下星期中央真係出好消息，「最後大升」有機會出現番。若果唔係，大市反彈回補今日之下跌裂口後，再向下探，有機會提早攪出個「似樣調整」。不過筆者還是偏向下星期中央冇乜壞消息出台，甚或有好消息。
恆指低「抄」，唔到你沽
恆指及各個股今早由低抄起，找出最低可能性，心血少D都唔掂。今早試盤已試跌800點，開市跌700零點，一下已搶落100天線，該區乃之前島形底之裂口，支持點都有番咁上下。由於一早低抄至100天線，反而可以考慮反彈才沽貨，甚至等兩等又到人行出黎講野，以筆者純個人主觀睇法，認為會係好消息多，但市場明顯傳緊既預計係壞消息多，信唔信坊間睇法，不願致評。
若待反彈沽貨，留意50天線，如今已變成為阻力。
例牌菜，財爺、特首報告前作狀跌下，今日黎講，開咪前席跌幅擴闊，睇下報告完係唔係跌幅收窄番。
若待反彈沽貨，留意50天線，如今已變成為阻力。
例牌菜，財爺、特首報告前作狀跌下，今日黎講，開咪前席跌幅擴闊，睇下報告完係唔係跌幅收窄番。
大禍可能將至，暫時收工
世界變，國內股市影響美國股市，國內創自97以來單日最大跌幅，影響道指亦創自2001年以來單日最大跌幅，跌成416點。參考當年數據：
2001年9月17日：
HSI Previous 9569, Open 9397, Close 9319 (跌250點)
DJI Previous 9650, Open 9294, Close 8920 (跌730點) (單日跌4%)
2001年9月18日：
HSI Previous 9319, Open 9509, Close 9307 (跌12點)
DJI Previous 8920, Open 8922, Close 8903 (跌17點)
2001年9月19日：
HSI Previous 9307, Open 9402, Close 9558 (升251點)
DJI Previous 8903, Open 8903, Close 8759 (跌144點)
2001年9月20日：
HSI Previous 9558, Open 9415, Close 9317 (跌241點)
DJI Previous 8759, Open 8375, Close 8304 (跌455點)
2001年9月21日：
HSI Previous 9317, Open 9039, Close 8894 (跌423點)
2001年9月24日：
HSI Previous 8894, Open 8971, Close 9284 (升390點)
DJI Previous 8304, Open 8242, Close 8603 (升299點)
2001年9月25日：
HSI Previous 9284, Open 9411, Close 9210 (升74點)
DJI Previous 8603, Open 8605, Close 8659 (升點)
2001年9月26日：
HSI Previous 9210, Open 9307, Close 9371 (升161點)
DJI Previous 8659, Open 8660, Close 8567 (升92點)
要注意，當時美股大跌乃出於911事件，美國休市四日，港股早已跌定，由10417跌至9319。故美股大跌後，港股並未跟隨。
今時唔同往日，中國經濟舉足輕重，今日大跌觸發歐、美股市大跌。
估計港股該不大受美股大跌所影響 (有都係短暫藉口，事關今次唔係美國影響緊成件事)，而是要視乎國內A股市況而定。國內A股會否喘定難料，國內投資者新手多，而且農歷年左近國內出現大量新股票客戶，真難攪。
港股如大跌，技術上將破重要支持走勢而觸發中期調整。
筆者多數執野走，市況急轉，「最後大升」如今唔使行先。
還有一個可行策略就是替自己所持有既貨買保險，即買入恆指認沽證對沖風險。
執野走都無可口非，有錢賺就袋左先，黎幾日都唔多似會有咩向上發展既水位。大家都觀望星期一人民銀行既發表。大戶門沽貨離場亦因為防人行可能宣佈加息。但分分鐘星期一有既係好消息。等一切明朗化先再考慮入唔入番市，鎖住利潤，日後機會多的是。
還有一點，源材料價格亦大受影響，皆因國內乃源材料之最大需求國，但金又另話。當然明明基於08奧運建設，國內對源材料需求依然係大，但係，總之，黎一刻個藉口炒得成既機會非常大，短暫黎講，源材料受壓一點也不為奇。
2001年9月17日：
HSI Previous 9569, Open 9397, Close 9319 (跌250點)
DJI Previous 9650, Open 9294, Close 8920 (跌730點) (單日跌4%)
2001年9月18日：
HSI Previous 9319, Open 9509, Close 9307 (跌12點)
DJI Previous 8920, Open 8922, Close 8903 (跌17點)
2001年9月19日：
HSI Previous 9307, Open 9402, Close 9558 (升251點)
DJI Previous 8903, Open 8903, Close 8759 (跌144點)
2001年9月20日：
HSI Previous 9558, Open 9415, Close 9317 (跌241點)
DJI Previous 8759, Open 8375, Close 8304 (跌455點)
2001年9月21日：
HSI Previous 9317, Open 9039, Close 8894 (跌423點)
2001年9月24日：
HSI Previous 8894, Open 8971, Close 9284 (升390點)
DJI Previous 8304, Open 8242, Close 8603 (升299點)
2001年9月25日：
HSI Previous 9284, Open 9411, Close 9210 (升74點)
DJI Previous 8603, Open 8605, Close 8659 (升點)
2001年9月26日：
HSI Previous 9210, Open 9307, Close 9371 (升161點)
DJI Previous 8659, Open 8660, Close 8567 (升92點)
要注意，當時美股大跌乃出於911事件，美國休市四日，港股早已跌定，由10417跌至9319。故美股大跌後，港股並未跟隨。
今時唔同往日，中國經濟舉足輕重，今日大跌觸發歐、美股市大跌。
估計港股該不大受美股大跌所影響 (有都係短暫藉口，事關今次唔係美國影響緊成件事)，而是要視乎國內A股市況而定。國內A股會否喘定難料，國內投資者新手多，而且農歷年左近國內出現大量新股票客戶，真難攪。
港股如大跌，技術上將破重要支持走勢而觸發中期調整。
筆者多數執野走，市況急轉，「最後大升」如今唔使行先。
還有一個可行策略就是替自己所持有既貨買保險，即買入恆指認沽證對沖風險。
執野走都無可口非，有錢賺就袋左先，黎幾日都唔多似會有咩向上發展既水位。大家都觀望星期一人民銀行既發表。大戶門沽貨離場亦因為防人行可能宣佈加息。但分分鐘星期一有既係好消息。等一切明朗化先再考慮入唔入番市，鎖住利潤，日後機會多的是。
還有一點，源材料價格亦大受影響，皆因國內乃源材料之最大需求國，但金又另話。當然明明基於08奧運建設，國內對源材料需求依然係大，但係，總之，黎一刻個藉口炒得成既機會非常大，短暫黎講，源材料受壓一點也不為奇。
2007年2月25日星期日
「最後大升」遲遲未成
久休復出，先同大家拜個年。祝大家新年進步，身體健康，財源廣進。
「最後大升」，遇上事故多多，難攪非常，一延再延，至今遲遲未成。筆者依然認為「最後大升」要成其事，才出現「似樣調整」。
「最後大升」要衝破20,971點唔容易，此區沽壓甚重，部份好友逢20,800左右偷步計數，加上匯控弱到震，認真「好友唔易做」。做淡一樣死，故近日唯有急上急落。
「似樣調整」要嚮3至5月期間發生。到時唔係「東東東東東東」所講既調整1,000至1,500點咁簡單。黎下要穿50天線，起碼要見「一年期上升軌」之頂部，此「一年期上升軌」乃恆指於上年十月期間所突破的較溫和之上升軌。好有機會，此頂部頂得一兩下，然後跌穿，然後再向下探。最遲6月回升，大市再度暢旺。
自筆者話等埋「最後大升」才執野走，本估計於一月中出現，但卻一延再延，至今「最後大升」還未成事，個市亦遲遲未玩完，筆者重未執得野走，想完完全全畀個腦休息番一個月都未得。
如今大市之變數比以往多好多、包括地緣政治風險、油價、美股等，捉路不易，要見步行步。
「最後大升」，遇上事故多多，難攪非常，一延再延，至今遲遲未成。筆者依然認為「最後大升」要成其事，才出現「似樣調整」。
「最後大升」要衝破20,971點唔容易，此區沽壓甚重，部份好友逢20,800左右偷步計數，加上匯控弱到震，認真「好友唔易做」。做淡一樣死，故近日唯有急上急落。
「似樣調整」要嚮3至5月期間發生。到時唔係「東東東東東東」所講既調整1,000至1,500點咁簡單。黎下要穿50天線，起碼要見「一年期上升軌」之頂部，此「一年期上升軌」乃恆指於上年十月期間所突破的較溫和之上升軌。好有機會，此頂部頂得一兩下，然後跌穿，然後再向下探。最遲6月回升，大市再度暢旺。
自筆者話等埋「最後大升」才執野走，本估計於一月中出現，但卻一延再延，至今「最後大升」還未成事，個市亦遲遲未玩完，筆者重未執得野走，想完完全全畀個腦休息番一個月都未得。
如今大市之變數比以往多好多、包括地緣政治風險、油價、美股等，捉路不易，要見步行步。
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)