四月尾，星期三、四，好友果然大舉進攻，但成效不大，出奇地只能挾傷淡友，冇緊要，引淡友五月再鬥，五月初挾死唔少淡友喇掛。
筆者將近日觀察到一些股評人既言論，同各位分享。請各位評評理，諗下重聽唔聽佢地講好呢？
一、係五一之前，好多評論員都講趁五一黃金週，中央會推出打壓股市之政策。由於之前加息及調高存款準備金都不足以壓止炒風，故需要更強硬之手段。佢地又話，中央選擇長假期推出措施為左令股民有時間冷靜消化有關措施。建議股民先行離場觀望。
聽其言者，先行離場觀望大市創新高。還有，該言論是否有其予盾之處呢？既然中央近期打極D股民都唔願走，若然中央要出手，點解會認為中央要畀個假期D股民消化下D措施呢？等佢地冷靜地唔好亂咁走？點Cin？點Jack？
二、今日恆指升幅明顯於尾市收窄，但股評人話唔擔心，因為恆生指數未平倉合約冇減少到。
先唔評論使唔使擔心住。但肯定炒恆指既大戶冇咁傻，會畀人捉到路。其中一個好簡單既方法係，用兩個唔同既戶口，一個響之前做晒好倉。另一個用黎今日做淡倉。咁，即係平左倉。結果係，未平倉合約有增無減，成交亦多左，等其他唔知情既人，以為成交大增，繼續跟住做好倉，而大戶就可以再做多幾張淡倉。咁既操作，所需既係更多按金，資金鎖到期指結算日。
三、港股升市受外圍帶動。
重來唔知某電視台新聞報道員當黎句：「外圍帶動」，係一種修辭既手法，定係貪佢讀黎好似好醒咁呢？星期日話：「受到美股創新高所帶動，港股連升三日。」今日又話：「受到外圍做好所帶動，港股早段一度做好，並創出新高。」唉！如果跌呢，就可以話：「外圍做好，但港股未能跟隨。」係，重可以講：「受港股帶動，三嬸血壓一度升至三月以來既高位。但林伯未能跟隨，尿壓逆市向下，一度創七年新低。」重有，美股新高之後又有新高，創左好多日啦，要跟，晨早跟左啦。
當然，筆者唔係話所有股評人都不值一提，只係想大家警惕下咁o者。
2007年5月8日星期二
2007年4月25日星期三
回應第一拯救小隊隊員
署名「第一拯救小隊隊員」的讀者發出了一個提問，見「散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可施」一文之comments。
首先感激閣下作出如此有見地之提問。
你說的甚是，筆者亦認定10年回歸要做到個市好靚仔，一片繁華既境況。
所以筆者認為跌市要響7月前出現。
要點係：
一、唔可以回歸十年，即七月一日後，就展開跌市。一片繁華境況應該都要維持一下。甚至維持至08奧運。
二、若要粉飾大市，是要資金推高大市的。不太可能過早便開始托市，資金該留力到某一階段才有行動。
三、若於20,500點水平推高大市，其實向上水位唔夠，還要維持到回歸後，相信難度非常高。
故筆者認為大市會於七月前找出機會調整，再由某個低位一路升番上黎，做個甚麼連升幾多日，一共升了多少多少點，破埋記錄，創埋新高。
還有一點非常值得留意，就是市場有幾多人會作出這個推測，又有幾多人願意透露這種看法。回顧近期大市，明顯地，大部份時候都是市場循大圍看法的相反方向發展；與市場想法對著幹的人才大勝。筆者認為只把這現象以「相反理論」解釋，容易誤導人。事實上是「沒有這麼易賺的錢」這個理論才是真正的定律；總不能一檯麻章，四個人食胡。
首先感激閣下作出如此有見地之提問。
你說的甚是，筆者亦認定10年回歸要做到個市好靚仔，一片繁華既境況。
所以筆者認為跌市要響7月前出現。
要點係：
一、唔可以回歸十年，即七月一日後，就展開跌市。一片繁華境況應該都要維持一下。甚至維持至08奧運。
二、若要粉飾大市，是要資金推高大市的。不太可能過早便開始托市，資金該留力到某一階段才有行動。
三、若於20,500點水平推高大市，其實向上水位唔夠，還要維持到回歸後，相信難度非常高。
故筆者認為大市會於七月前找出機會調整，再由某個低位一路升番上黎，做個甚麼連升幾多日，一共升了多少多少點，破埋記錄，創埋新高。
還有一點非常值得留意，就是市場有幾多人會作出這個推測，又有幾多人願意透露這種看法。回顧近期大市，明顯地，大部份時候都是市場循大圍看法的相反方向發展；與市場想法對著幹的人才大勝。筆者認為只把這現象以「相反理論」解釋，容易誤導人。事實上是「沒有這麼易賺的錢」這個理論才是真正的定律；總不能一檯麻章，四個人食胡。
2007年4月24日星期二
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私
大戶無法引入大批散戶接火棒。一有咩風吹草動就觸發散戶G點，未有耐可以做到散戶股火焚身。唯有係指數期貨上撕殺。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
好友狹淡友格局成形。且看淡友搵唔搵到藉口。四月好友勝，相信應該星期三四大舉出擊。若奇妙地未能突破，則五月初亦要淡友死。然後睇環境，七月前出現大跌機會唔細。
散戶心靈脆弱，大戶無計可私，唯有分段多次推高個市派貨，炒低又順便入些少，又再推高，派番些少舊貨加新貨，做密D，做大幅度D。唔係既話，點派得晒D貨。
2007年4月19日星期四
Back on Track
Just like last Christmas, it is.
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
It is going to be back on track as what we had left off by the end of Feb. Meaning that it will be back to "The Last Big Rise" (最後大升) and then afterwards, "The True Correction" (似樣調整).
Will get back to the topics as soon as I have time. ;P
2007年4月3日星期二
Last Christmas
As far as Easter goes... looks just like last Christmas...
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
4 parties, Western, Hong Kong, China, Middle East, surprise seems to come because of the latter two parties...
Don't mind to hold until back from Easter holiday.
2007年3月25日星期日
Tomorrow, stock will have a good rise
According to my conspiracy theory, tomorrow, stock will have a good rise, simply because Tsang elected.
2007年3月22日星期四
I have to say this...
Long time no write...
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
Got a lot of construction work to do since March, even my notebook went nuts and already taken weeks to fix, and I don't know how to use ChangJie, instead I use some other typing method that cannot be found on other machines, so this is why all of the sudden you are getting English from me.
But still there were something I really have to say:
when the stock went down, I mentioned that it wasn't time to sell because prices were way too unreasonable. And I suggested to wait for the bounce back to sell and watch out for the 50 days moving average, right now, it is at 19,986.
According to wave theory, it is now said to be the B sub-wave of the 4th wave, where the 4th wave is a declining wave and B sub-wave is the bouncing sub-wave, so up-coming it will be the C sub-wave, meaning that bouncing will be finished, and the stock will head down again.
Not everyone would buy in to wave theory, as counting waves is quite subjective. Aside from wave theory, if you treat this as a bounce back, here is my calculation:
HSI has slided from 20,844 to 18,659, which is a 2,185 of declining. Using the very naive way of golden ratio, result in two measurement of the bouncing. One, is 0.382, and the other is 0.618. If the environment is seeming more negative, the bouncing will only reach 38.2%, which is 19,493 (where last bounce went up to 19,470 in March 12th, quite close). Otherwise, if the environment is seeming more positive, the bouncing can reach up to 61.8%, which is 20,009. At present, US stock market has an excuse to use after Fed's decision on interest rate, also the blue chips in HK is announcing positive reports, Yen rate has went down, and etc. The bouncing has the momentum to reach near 20,000.
Note that the 61.8% bounce hits the 50 days moving average. For the declining, the first gap was made in Feb 28, the gap was from 20,042 to 19,749, filling back the gap of 61.8%, would reach 19,930 (where filling the gap of 38.2%, would be 19,861).
In summary:
1. According to wave theory, what is happening right now is only a bounce back and C sub-wave is coming, HSI has to find another bottom (that bottom doesn't have to be lower than the previous one though).
2.1. If the bounce back reach 19,861, the first downward gap is filled by 38.2%.
2.2. If the bounce back reach 19,930, the first downward gap is filled by 61.8%.
2.3. If the bounce back reach 20,009, a bounce of 61.8% is completed.
2.4. If the bounce back reach 20,042, the first downward gap is completely filled.
The bounce back reach 20,042 (or slightly above) at best, and 19,861 at worst.
In my opinion, it at worst fill the gap by 61.8%, that is 19,930, and at 20,000 definitely would face very strong resistance, unless something extremely positive popping up at the right time would change that fate.
All figures have been laid out, now, "leave" at your own risk.
2007年2月28日星期三
今日分分鐘純屬超大震倉活動
今日乃近年最驚險既一次。昨晚看著道指由跌200多點擴大至差不多跌600點，最終收市仍跌400多點，實在訓唔著覺。當晚計劃好第二天如何續步放貨。結果一早恆指由最低抄起，一開盤個個開價離晒大譜！市場失性，有人撩貨，不虞有詐，當睇唔到。寫下短短文章，然後攬住D貨訓其大覺，此舉都算係近期代表作。結果同個市其實冇乜關係既財政預算案講完之後，照慣例回升，之前既跌幅再擴大果然係例牌菜。
今日其實係「國際撈低貨日」，自己成手貨唔夠資金冇份撈，更加唔會提他人入貨，做吃力不討好之事。有人認為建設銀行機會難逢，大舉入貨作中線投資。大部份股份都成功被人撩出平貨。玖龍紙業居然被人撩出$14.5既貨，然後臨收市又居然可以倒升2%，非常過份！
星期二內地傳聞一大籮。攪到咁大，唔通下星期有極好消息出台？
依家「最後大升」唔成時，亦未見係筆者所講既「似樣調整」(該調整要見下250天線，18,000點等G點，就好似上年六月中出現果隻調整)。大市都重係上上落落格局，如果下星期中央真係出好消息，「最後大升」有機會出現番。若果唔係，大市反彈回補今日之下跌裂口後，再向下探，有機會提早攪出個「似樣調整」。不過筆者還是偏向下星期中央冇乜壞消息出台，甚或有好消息。
今日其實係「國際撈低貨日」，自己成手貨唔夠資金冇份撈，更加唔會提他人入貨，做吃力不討好之事。有人認為建設銀行機會難逢，大舉入貨作中線投資。大部份股份都成功被人撩出平貨。玖龍紙業居然被人撩出$14.5既貨，然後臨收市又居然可以倒升2%，非常過份！
星期二內地傳聞一大籮。攪到咁大，唔通下星期有極好消息出台？
依家「最後大升」唔成時，亦未見係筆者所講既「似樣調整」(該調整要見下250天線，18,000點等G點，就好似上年六月中出現果隻調整)。大市都重係上上落落格局，如果下星期中央真係出好消息，「最後大升」有機會出現番。若果唔係，大市反彈回補今日之下跌裂口後，再向下探，有機會提早攪出個「似樣調整」。不過筆者還是偏向下星期中央冇乜壞消息出台，甚或有好消息。
恆指低「抄」，唔到你沽
恆指及各個股今早由低抄起，找出最低可能性，心血少D都唔掂。今早試盤已試跌800點，開市跌700零點，一下已搶落100天線，該區乃之前島形底之裂口，支持點都有番咁上下。由於一早低抄至100天線，反而可以考慮反彈才沽貨，甚至等兩等又到人行出黎講野，以筆者純個人主觀睇法，認為會係好消息多，但市場明顯傳緊既預計係壞消息多，信唔信坊間睇法，不願致評。
若待反彈沽貨，留意50天線，如今已變成為阻力。
例牌菜，財爺、特首報告前作狀跌下，今日黎講，開咪前席跌幅擴闊，睇下報告完係唔係跌幅收窄番。
若待反彈沽貨，留意50天線，如今已變成為阻力。
例牌菜，財爺、特首報告前作狀跌下，今日黎講，開咪前席跌幅擴闊，睇下報告完係唔係跌幅收窄番。
大禍可能將至，暫時收工
世界變，國內股市影響美國股市，國內創自97以來單日最大跌幅，影響道指亦創自2001年以來單日最大跌幅，跌成416點。參考當年數據：
2001年9月17日：
HSI Previous 9569, Open 9397, Close 9319 (跌250點)
DJI Previous 9650, Open 9294, Close 8920 (跌730點) (單日跌4%)
2001年9月18日：
HSI Previous 9319, Open 9509, Close 9307 (跌12點)
DJI Previous 8920, Open 8922, Close 8903 (跌17點)
2001年9月19日：
HSI Previous 9307, Open 9402, Close 9558 (升251點)
DJI Previous 8903, Open 8903, Close 8759 (跌144點)
2001年9月20日：
HSI Previous 9558, Open 9415, Close 9317 (跌241點)
DJI Previous 8759, Open 8375, Close 8304 (跌455點)
2001年9月21日：
HSI Previous 9317, Open 9039, Close 8894 (跌423點)
2001年9月24日：
HSI Previous 8894, Open 8971, Close 9284 (升390點)
DJI Previous 8304, Open 8242, Close 8603 (升299點)
2001年9月25日：
HSI Previous 9284, Open 9411, Close 9210 (升74點)
DJI Previous 8603, Open 8605, Close 8659 (升點)
2001年9月26日：
HSI Previous 9210, Open 9307, Close 9371 (升161點)
DJI Previous 8659, Open 8660, Close 8567 (升92點)
要注意，當時美股大跌乃出於911事件，美國休市四日，港股早已跌定，由10417跌至9319。故美股大跌後，港股並未跟隨。
今時唔同往日，中國經濟舉足輕重，今日大跌觸發歐、美股市大跌。
估計港股該不大受美股大跌所影響 (有都係短暫藉口，事關今次唔係美國影響緊成件事)，而是要視乎國內A股市況而定。國內A股會否喘定難料，國內投資者新手多，而且農歷年左近國內出現大量新股票客戶，真難攪。
港股如大跌，技術上將破重要支持走勢而觸發中期調整。
筆者多數執野走，市況急轉，「最後大升」如今唔使行先。
還有一個可行策略就是替自己所持有既貨買保險，即買入恆指認沽證對沖風險。
執野走都無可口非，有錢賺就袋左先，黎幾日都唔多似會有咩向上發展既水位。大家都觀望星期一人民銀行既發表。大戶門沽貨離場亦因為防人行可能宣佈加息。但分分鐘星期一有既係好消息。等一切明朗化先再考慮入唔入番市，鎖住利潤，日後機會多的是。
還有一點，源材料價格亦大受影響，皆因國內乃源材料之最大需求國，但金又另話。當然明明基於08奧運建設，國內對源材料需求依然係大，但係，總之，黎一刻個藉口炒得成既機會非常大，短暫黎講，源材料受壓一點也不為奇。
2001年9月17日：
HSI Previous 9569, Open 9397, Close 9319 (跌250點)
DJI Previous 9650, Open 9294, Close 8920 (跌730點) (單日跌4%)
2001年9月18日：
HSI Previous 9319, Open 9509, Close 9307 (跌12點)
DJI Previous 8920, Open 8922, Close 8903 (跌17點)
2001年9月19日：
HSI Previous 9307, Open 9402, Close 9558 (升251點)
DJI Previous 8903, Open 8903, Close 8759 (跌144點)
2001年9月20日：
HSI Previous 9558, Open 9415, Close 9317 (跌241點)
DJI Previous 8759, Open 8375, Close 8304 (跌455點)
2001年9月21日：
HSI Previous 9317, Open 9039, Close 8894 (跌423點)
2001年9月24日：
HSI Previous 8894, Open 8971, Close 9284 (升390點)
DJI Previous 8304, Open 8242, Close 8603 (升299點)
2001年9月25日：
HSI Previous 9284, Open 9411, Close 9210 (升74點)
DJI Previous 8603, Open 8605, Close 8659 (升點)
2001年9月26日：
HSI Previous 9210, Open 9307, Close 9371 (升161點)
DJI Previous 8659, Open 8660, Close 8567 (升92點)
要注意，當時美股大跌乃出於911事件，美國休市四日，港股早已跌定，由10417跌至9319。故美股大跌後，港股並未跟隨。
今時唔同往日，中國經濟舉足輕重，今日大跌觸發歐、美股市大跌。
估計港股該不大受美股大跌所影響 (有都係短暫藉口，事關今次唔係美國影響緊成件事)，而是要視乎國內A股市況而定。國內A股會否喘定難料，國內投資者新手多，而且農歷年左近國內出現大量新股票客戶，真難攪。
港股如大跌，技術上將破重要支持走勢而觸發中期調整。
筆者多數執野走，市況急轉，「最後大升」如今唔使行先。
還有一個可行策略就是替自己所持有既貨買保險，即買入恆指認沽證對沖風險。
執野走都無可口非，有錢賺就袋左先，黎幾日都唔多似會有咩向上發展既水位。大家都觀望星期一人民銀行既發表。大戶門沽貨離場亦因為防人行可能宣佈加息。但分分鐘星期一有既係好消息。等一切明朗化先再考慮入唔入番市，鎖住利潤，日後機會多的是。
還有一點，源材料價格亦大受影響，皆因國內乃源材料之最大需求國，但金又另話。當然明明基於08奧運建設，國內對源材料需求依然係大，但係，總之，黎一刻個藉口炒得成既機會非常大，短暫黎講，源材料受壓一點也不為奇。
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